Signs and statistics point the way for a rebounding Spring market on Cape Cod. Blessed with a mild winter so far, our Spring market seemed to 'take off' during the normally quiet holiday season.

January statistics show an amazing burst of activity-

Single Family units sales activity is UP by an astounding 26% over January of 2011.Properties with accepted offers to purchase are UP by even more amazing 37%. These properties likely to close in the next 30-60 days, so 2012 appears to be the year of recovery in the Cape Cod real estate market.

Looking ahead: we don't see prices jumping, as demand is still not strong enough to reduce the inventory to 'balance' the market between Buyers and Sellers. Financing is still difficult for Buyers, and since the selling prices in January 2012 (compared to 2011) dropped by 10%, it is clear that pricing is key to success.

Second home buyers are a strong force in this market, and the best 'beach' properties are selling well-it is not too early to find that home by the sea for Summer 2012!

Call or email me to discuss why Seller and Buyers have relied on my professionalism and expertise for 26 years -Selling Cape Cod Real Estate...One Yard at a Time (tm)

Deb Schilling
Find me on Facebook-www.facebook.com/CapeCod1YardAtATime

Cape Cod Market conditions for late 2011

Our Cape Cod market continues to show strength in the last 2 quarters, as Buyers overcame concerns about economy and snapped up the best available properties. Cape Cod sales volume in 2011 is down about 10% compared to 2010 and median price dropped 2% for the same period. This is reasonable for the current situation, and is good considering 2010 sales were buoyed by the government tax incentives. 2011 has had no artificial buying stimuli, so the sales this year have been truly free market.

Many Buyers and Sellers recognize that the ‘bottom’ is here-especially when calculating the cost to purchase-with interest rates at historic lows. The Second home/vacation buyers seem to be aware of this and have made a significant contribution to real estate sales this year. We have seen significant interest in beach properties, village properties in Cotuit, Osterville Centerville, and Marstons Mills

Pricing and preparing a home for sale has never been more crucial-Buyers will buy the ‘good’ properties-priced well and prepped for showing. Sellers realize that condition sells and pricing to the market is key to success.

Consumer confidence appears to be growing slowly, and this will likely increase the desire to make the investments that have been postponed due to uncertainty and negative news.

2012 should be a year of gradual improvement in the Cape Cod real estate market, as interest rates should remain low and prices for properties will have hit bottom and may start to rise by Mid Year as demand reduces the inventory backlog. We don’t expect prices to rise much in the next year, but more desirable locations and appropriately marketed properties could exceed this modest expectation.z

Until you can return to the Cape (or even better buy your vacation home here) enjoy this scene overlooking Nauset Marsh from Fort Hill area of Cape Cod National Seashore on a glorious November day

The 4th of July is the real start of summer on Cape Cod. We sometimes have cool cloudy weather well into June, so we anxiously await Julys more dependable summer weather. It was here in full measure this past weekend.

Fireworks courtesy of Oyster Harbors Club over Cotuit Bay on Saturday night-we watched from our boat in the harbor and it was spectacular. Cotuit beaches were full of observers, and because it is not publicized, there are few traffic issues and many view spots. Sunday was a play day for many-in the boat, on the beach, loads of year round and summer people hiking, biking and just hanging around Cotuit village and Loop Beach in Cotuit. If you want a total escape from any crowds on July 4, venture to Marstons Mills-just across Rt. 28-where you live enjoying the summer, but not impacted by the summer rush. Loaded with freshwater swimming and boating lakes, young families especially enjoy these beaches-typically uncrowded. See photos below-beachcombing on Sampson's Island- Cotuit, and sailing on Hamblin's Pond, Marstons Mills

If you have ever dreamed of owning a primary or second home or vacation home on Cape Cod, the opportunities have never been better.

Deb Schilling

As we enter the second half of 2011, the real estate forecast is partly  cloudy!  I have had a great first 6 months of 2011, and my Sellers and Buyers seem pleased to buy or sell their Cape Cod property.

We look ahead and some economic signs are troubling, but the activity here on Cape Cod seems to not always be directly affected as other areas of the country are. Second home buyers are purchasing properties for personal use, and/or for eventual retirement. There seems to be a trend toward down-sizing, too, as many of the larger homes remain unsold. The First Quarter 2011 statistics for Cape Cod and the Islands shows the number of sales down substantially by 41%, as compared to 2010, and yet the median price rose by 5.7%. This doesn’t mean prices are rising, yet it does show that there are more expensive houses selling as compared to the vast number of foreclosures that pulled the median prices down in 2010 (and created the larger number of sales in 2010-combined with the tax credit incentives).

I continue to work full time as an experienced real estate professional, and am ready to help you or your referrals with buying or selling decisions. Enjoy the phot below, showing one of only 2 bridges that access Cape Cod -we are an island unto ourselves!

Pure democracy or pure arrogance at Centerville Osterville Marstons Mills Fire District Annual meeting?

Last night I was witness to a scene right out of a Machiavellian plot at the Annual District meeting of the Centerville Osterville Marstons Mills Fire and Water District. As a non-resident of the ‘District’,  but President of the Marstons Mills Public Library Board of Trustees, I was there as an interested party to Article #21, an article on the Warrant because of a Citizen’s Petition. This article reads (sorry I don’t know how to easily incorporate a link to this language elsewhere)

“We, the undersigned …respectfully request the Prudential Committee of the COMM Fire District to pursue an appeal to the Massachusetts State Legislature for an enabling act to permit the district to raise and appropriate funds for the assistance of the Centerville Public Library, Osterville Village Library, and Marstons Mills Public Library.”

The Prudential Committee, on advice of legal counsel, recommended ‘indefinite postponement’-effectively killing the request. In this recommendation it is expressed that because of legal technicalities (too obtuse to explain here), that “adopting it would amount to invalid action taken to request an invalid activity.”

So, how is this Machiavellian (defined in the OED-quoting here-” the employment of cunning and duplicity in statecraft or in general conduct")? This petition was submitted for review to the District in February 2011, ample time for the District to review this petition and discuss the legality & proper terminology in order to inform the Petitioners what they might do to correct improper language & concepts, etc-before securing the required 50 resident/citizen signatures! No such response or advice was forthcoming-even when the signed petition was submitted for in proper time for eligibility for inclusion on the May 2011 warrant. Long after that deadline to submit (too late to change anything) the originating petitioner received notification about the recommendation to indefinitely postpone and the legal rationale-too obtuse to comment on here.

This was the first inkling to the petition supporters that this petition might be deemed to be a nuisance-too trivial and amateurish to be treated with the seriousness the Petition deserved. To the District-a ‘commendable’ idea, it said in its comments about the recommendation to postpone-this may have been viewed as an intrusion on their authority of overseeing a $14 million dollar annual budget (!) that Citizens actually initiated this petition (based on the precedent of Cotuit Fire District’s change of the enabling legislation decades ago to allow monies to flow to the Cotuit Library from its coffers) and found a way to get it officially in front of the District Voters for a vote.

So that is the background!

At the meeting, it was even more interesting to see how the Powers-that-be worked to thwart the ‘pure democracy’ of the District Meeting. Articles 1-20 passed with little comment or dissent.  When Article 21 came to a Motion (duly moved and seconded), the ‘lead petitioner’ made a presentation outlining the events above-no response from the District or its Legal Counsel, and the precedent in the Cotuit Fire District for assisting in library funding. When another District Resident sought clarification about Cotuit’s changing enabling legislation, the District Counsel and the Moderator treated the questioner with disdain and condescension when she asked if they could confirm Cotuit’s funding. They acted as if they had never been aware of the Cotuit situation. The lead petitioner came to microphone to provide copies she had procured of this legislation, and offered it to the Moderator and District Counselor, both of whom remained planted in their positions on the stage-apparently unwilling to touch the ‘hot potato’ they might have to acknowledge.

Some other discussion was provided, some by a beloved and caring District resident. He suggested that all things can be re-worded, as legislation is changed and modified constantly by subsequent legislative action and did not understand the reluctance to treat this Article as one that the District meeting voters should be allowed to vote upon.

The Article did actually get ‘moved’-called for a vote and the voice vote was close enough to require an actual count. The motion to pass the Article had strong support-to the great surprise of the supporters of it, and to the consternation of the opponents-especially the ‘suits’ (Prudential Committee, Moderator, Legal Counsel, and Commissioners) on the stage! After the audience count, Jim Crocker (COMM Fire Commissioner) recognized that the article had a good chance of passing, and to the naïve observer (myself included!) it appeared he wanted to support this article and he voted in the affirmative! Wow, the People were heard! The elected official responded!

WAIT-not so fast! After the negative votes were counted, the motion DID pass, and Jim Crocker immediately popped up and made a Motion to ‘reconsider the motion’ just approved. This parliamentary maneuver is one only an ‘insider’ would know-he HAD to vote in the affirmative in order to ‘move’ for reconsideration! What just happened? By putting a motion to reconsider the vote, it was a blatant attempt to overthrow the ‘Yes’ vote that had just occurred.

 Is that a true example of Machiavellian tactics? Seems that it is to me! Is the Legal Counsel’s lack of advice and response to the early submission of the petition also Machiavellian or simple arrogance? Do the People have a right to be heard? In a Pure Democracy (as the 5 separate Fire Districts in the Town of Barnstable are purported to be), is that why District residents simply have given up attending the meetings? A quorum of 100 took over an hour to achieve! Obviously, it is more than just citizen apathy. It is being treated as if the voters have no voice. The Citizens are outmaneuvered by the elected officials’ access to the citizen-funded legal advice, parliamentary tactics and the difficulty of sorting through how the monies are actually spent.

Now, for the evening denouement: the meeting was adjourned, because a quorum no longer existed to vote on the reconsideration motion. Therefore, the meeting is not ‘over’ --only adjourned until June 9, where I hope the supporters of this possibly technically flawed petition will have their say again-to vote in the affirmative and to ask the Elected Officials to do their sworn duty--to act on behalf of the electorate, and EXPLORE how to change the enabling legislation to allow for some monetary assistance to the Centerville, Osterville and Marstons Mills libraries, who struggle mightily to survive in the Town of Barnstable’s only partial financial support of their existences.

Whew that was a treatise-but then such an involved story cannot be explained in 500 words or less!

Posted by:

Deborah Schilling, Town of Barnstable Resident-not speaking on behalf of the Marstons Mills Board of Trustees, but only as an interested witness to the machinations of the COMM Fire and Water District and its politicians and legal counsel.

As I drive around the Village of Cotuit on Cape Cod, there are many building and remodeling projects underway. A ‘teardown’ AND a total renovation (only left the front and side walls standing!) on School Street and 3 remodel and/or spruce up projects on Grove Street. Then there is the multi-million dollar project on Oceanview Drive-which is a substantial oceanfront parcel .

These are all good signs of confidence in the market. Here is an overview of the 2011 market activity:

Currently, there are 53 properties for sale: price range-$189k-$10,900,000. From Jan. 1, 2011-April 30, 2011, 19 properties have Sold: price range-$125,000-$1,940,000.  This translates to about a 10 month ‘supply’-still trending to favor Buyers (a 6 Month supply is considered a balanced market).

Trends? It seems that Cotuit is very desirable, yet prices are still stagnant, and may have some more adjustment ahead. If a house is in pristine condition and priced appropriately, it stands a good chance of selling. We have strong activity from the Second Home Buyer/Vacation Home buyer market, and I expect this to continue.

The Marstons Mills Public Library Board President, Deborah Schilling, together with the Trustees and staff of the library, hosted a very successful 7^th annual ‘Welcome Spring’ wine and beer tasting and silent auction last night-May 5. A Cinco de Mayo theme lent an air of fun to the event, held at the Marstons Mills Public Library on Main Street, Marstons Mills.

Over 70 were in attendance, and were served a variety of hot and cold Mexican style foods, complimentary Beer tasting from Cape Cod Beer-Cape Cod's own not-so-micro brewery. A real treat and surprise was the Beer Margarita-WOW! Beth Marcus, owner of Cape Cod Beer, said that recipe and many others are on their website www.CapeCodBeer.com I particularly enjoyed the Summer Ale-incredibly unique, with a clove flavor I really enjoyed. This from a 'fallen away' beer drinker! Also a Wine Tasting for wine afficiandos was enjoyed. A great night out to benefit my Marstons Mills non profit of choice.

The estimated $4000 raised will help with operational expenses of the library. For more information on the Library, its programs and staff, or to donate, go to www.mmpl.org

We are always looking for good volunteers, and trustee candidates to support the wide ranging services this library offers. We call it "The Little Library that makes a BIG difference". If you feel you might like to explore options to volunteer or serve on a committee, call me or the Library Director-Renee Voorhees.

Deborah Schilling

I was asked to comment on the ‘holiday homes’ market for a Boston newspaper article to be published. I assembled statistics and snapshots of the market for that interview and here are my thoughts.

The short report is that the Cape Cod real estate market has been active in the First 3 months of 2011. First time buyers are still competing with second home ‘holiday’ home buyers for the properties under $300,000-which is the fastest moving segment, with only a 5 month ‘supply’ at this point-almost a balanced market on Cape Cod!

Sellers are listing homes, and they need to be ‘prettied up’ to sell successfully. We see that there is a significant difference in the success of selling a mint condition home vs. one that shows even a little ‘tired’. Price is of course a critical factor, but buyers are strongly gravitating toward homes that are most updated, clean and well maintained.

Buyers are buying on Cape Cod, but the pace slowed since last year at this time, when the Tax Credits were stimulating buying activity for First Time and ‘move up’ (or down) buyers. Our sales volume for Cape Cod is off by 40% from first quarter of 2010, BUT median prices are up by 5.7%. Because pending sales are up so significantly, I am confident that this volume deficit will be greatly reduced when May and June sales are reported.

Are prices going up? Not at this time-the median price increase is attributable, I believe, to the huge percentage of sales in the lower tier of pricing (below $200,000) in 2010. Simply said, not much in the more expensive price range (over $500,000) was selling at all on Cape Cod in early 2010! In 2011, we have fewer homes under $200,00 to sell.

What happens from here? Mint condition, well priced homes will continue to sell; homes needing maintenance and price adjustments will be shown and shown-to the frustration of Sellers and their agents. Higher interest rates are pressing at the gate, and I am very concerned about the impact that a point or more interest rate jump will have on Buyers’ ability and willingness to buy. A double dip is a strong possibility if this happens, as the Cape Cod housing recovery is fragile and spotty.

Where are the ‘hot spots?’ From ‘pending sales’ perspective, Towns with large second home opportunities seem to be leading. This doesn’t mean all pending sales are second homes, but it is an indicator to support the observation that second home (holiday home) buyers are heavily participating in our market.

Real Estate on Cape Cod-Been down so long it looks like up!

Prices to fall further vs real estate prices on uptick, interest levels rising vs affordability reduced. Jobs uncertain vs no double dip recession. Recent news is more optimistic, for sure, but always tempered with ‘as long as…’ or ‘but if’.

I have been digesting both the last quarter 2010 summaries and the 2011 outlooks, and the picture is not clear. Cape Cod’s real estate market is distinct from the rest of Massachusetts, as we are a ‘vacation home’ community within commuting distance to a major city with strong and diverse employment.

I would be naïve to suggest that Cape Cod Real Estate sales are not vulnerable to future economic uncertainty, but we may have taken our ‘hit’ and could be heading up in sales volume and average price in 2011.  Since January 1, 2011, we have had a substantial increase in Buyer traffic, precipitated by jump in interest rates from their 2010 lows, and by the prospect of significant activity on both the very low end of pricing and the luxury property segment. Sandwiched in between-the mid range houses from $300,000-1,000,000 there are buyers looking, but carefully considering each decision, and awaiting price reductions to motivate them to act.

In summary, we see bright signs ahead, with 2011 likely to be the transition year to a modest real estate recovery in 2012 for Cape Cod real estate. Asking prices on individual properties are not set to rise, but as I have said before, properties that show very well and are priced for the current competition have an excellent chance of getting sold in early 2011. See Chart below (from Cape and Islands MLS reports) showing inventory levels in December dropped to only 10 months at the current rate of sales-a great sign to demonstrate movement in market. If you have questions, or would like more information about the Cape Cod Real estate marekt, contact me at deb@onestophomes.com

Deborah Schilling,
…One yard at a time –selling Cape Cod real estate for 25 years, with focus on Villages of Barnstable and beyond, including Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Osterville, Centerville, Hyannis, Barnstable and West Barnstable.