Signs and statistics point the way for a rebounding Spring market on Cape Cod. Blessed with a mild winter so far, our Spring market seemed to 'take off' during the normally quiet holiday season.

January statistics show an amazing burst of activity-

Single Family units sales activity is UP by an astounding 26% over January of 2011.Properties with accepted offers to purchase are UP by even more amazing 37%. These properties likely to close in the next 30-60 days, so 2012 appears to be the year of recovery in the Cape Cod real estate market.

Looking ahead: we don't see prices jumping, as demand is still not strong enough to reduce the inventory to 'balance' the market between Buyers and Sellers. Financing is still difficult for Buyers, and since the selling prices in January 2012 (compared to 2011) dropped by 10%, it is clear that pricing is key to success.

Second home buyers are a strong force in this market, and the best 'beach' properties are selling well-it is not too early to find that home by the sea for Summer 2012!

Call or email me to discuss why Seller and Buyers have relied on my professionalism and expertise for 26 years -Selling Cape Cod Real Estate...One Yard at a Time (tm)

Deb Schilling
Find me on Facebook-www.facebook.com/CapeCod1YardAtATime

Cape Cod Market conditions for late 2011

Our Cape Cod market continues to show strength in the last 2 quarters, as Buyers overcame concerns about economy and snapped up the best available properties. Cape Cod sales volume in 2011 is down about 10% compared to 2010 and median price dropped 2% for the same period. This is reasonable for the current situation, and is good considering 2010 sales were buoyed by the government tax incentives. 2011 has had no artificial buying stimuli, so the sales this year have been truly free market.

Many Buyers and Sellers recognize that the ‘bottom’ is here-especially when calculating the cost to purchase-with interest rates at historic lows. The Second home/vacation buyers seem to be aware of this and have made a significant contribution to real estate sales this year. We have seen significant interest in beach properties, village properties in Cotuit, Osterville Centerville, and Marstons Mills

Pricing and preparing a home for sale has never been more crucial-Buyers will buy the ‘good’ properties-priced well and prepped for showing. Sellers realize that condition sells and pricing to the market is key to success.

Consumer confidence appears to be growing slowly, and this will likely increase the desire to make the investments that have been postponed due to uncertainty and negative news.

2012 should be a year of gradual improvement in the Cape Cod real estate market, as interest rates should remain low and prices for properties will have hit bottom and may start to rise by Mid Year as demand reduces the inventory backlog. We don’t expect prices to rise much in the next year, but more desirable locations and appropriately marketed properties could exceed this modest expectation.z

Until you can return to the Cape (or even better buy your vacation home here) enjoy this scene overlooking Nauset Marsh from Fort Hill area of Cape Cod National Seashore on a glorious November day

Pure democracy or pure arrogance at Centerville Osterville Marstons Mills Fire District Annual meeting?

Last night I was witness to a scene right out of a Machiavellian plot at the Annual District meeting of the Centerville Osterville Marstons Mills Fire and Water District. As a non-resident of the ‘District’,  but President of the Marstons Mills Public Library Board of Trustees, I was there as an interested party to Article #21, an article on the Warrant because of a Citizen’s Petition. This article reads (sorry I don’t know how to easily incorporate a link to this language elsewhere)

“We, the undersigned …respectfully request the Prudential Committee of the COMM Fire District to pursue an appeal to the Massachusetts State Legislature for an enabling act to permit the district to raise and appropriate funds for the assistance of the Centerville Public Library, Osterville Village Library, and Marstons Mills Public Library.”

The Prudential Committee, on advice of legal counsel, recommended ‘indefinite postponement’-effectively killing the request. In this recommendation it is expressed that because of legal technicalities (too obtuse to explain here), that “adopting it would amount to invalid action taken to request an invalid activity.”

So, how is this Machiavellian (defined in the OED-quoting here-” the employment of cunning and duplicity in statecraft or in general conduct")? This petition was submitted for review to the District in February 2011, ample time for the District to review this petition and discuss the legality & proper terminology in order to inform the Petitioners what they might do to correct improper language & concepts, etc-before securing the required 50 resident/citizen signatures! No such response or advice was forthcoming-even when the signed petition was submitted for in proper time for eligibility for inclusion on the May 2011 warrant. Long after that deadline to submit (too late to change anything) the originating petitioner received notification about the recommendation to indefinitely postpone and the legal rationale-too obtuse to comment on here.

This was the first inkling to the petition supporters that this petition might be deemed to be a nuisance-too trivial and amateurish to be treated with the seriousness the Petition deserved. To the District-a ‘commendable’ idea, it said in its comments about the recommendation to postpone-this may have been viewed as an intrusion on their authority of overseeing a $14 million dollar annual budget (!) that Citizens actually initiated this petition (based on the precedent of Cotuit Fire District’s change of the enabling legislation decades ago to allow monies to flow to the Cotuit Library from its coffers) and found a way to get it officially in front of the District Voters for a vote.

So that is the background!

At the meeting, it was even more interesting to see how the Powers-that-be worked to thwart the ‘pure democracy’ of the District Meeting. Articles 1-20 passed with little comment or dissent.  When Article 21 came to a Motion (duly moved and seconded), the ‘lead petitioner’ made a presentation outlining the events above-no response from the District or its Legal Counsel, and the precedent in the Cotuit Fire District for assisting in library funding. When another District Resident sought clarification about Cotuit’s changing enabling legislation, the District Counsel and the Moderator treated the questioner with disdain and condescension when she asked if they could confirm Cotuit’s funding. They acted as if they had never been aware of the Cotuit situation. The lead petitioner came to microphone to provide copies she had procured of this legislation, and offered it to the Moderator and District Counselor, both of whom remained planted in their positions on the stage-apparently unwilling to touch the ‘hot potato’ they might have to acknowledge.

Some other discussion was provided, some by a beloved and caring District resident. He suggested that all things can be re-worded, as legislation is changed and modified constantly by subsequent legislative action and did not understand the reluctance to treat this Article as one that the District meeting voters should be allowed to vote upon.

The Article did actually get ‘moved’-called for a vote and the voice vote was close enough to require an actual count. The motion to pass the Article had strong support-to the great surprise of the supporters of it, and to the consternation of the opponents-especially the ‘suits’ (Prudential Committee, Moderator, Legal Counsel, and Commissioners) on the stage! After the audience count, Jim Crocker (COMM Fire Commissioner) recognized that the article had a good chance of passing, and to the naïve observer (myself included!) it appeared he wanted to support this article and he voted in the affirmative! Wow, the People were heard! The elected official responded!

WAIT-not so fast! After the negative votes were counted, the motion DID pass, and Jim Crocker immediately popped up and made a Motion to ‘reconsider the motion’ just approved. This parliamentary maneuver is one only an ‘insider’ would know-he HAD to vote in the affirmative in order to ‘move’ for reconsideration! What just happened? By putting a motion to reconsider the vote, it was a blatant attempt to overthrow the ‘Yes’ vote that had just occurred.

 Is that a true example of Machiavellian tactics? Seems that it is to me! Is the Legal Counsel’s lack of advice and response to the early submission of the petition also Machiavellian or simple arrogance? Do the People have a right to be heard? In a Pure Democracy (as the 5 separate Fire Districts in the Town of Barnstable are purported to be), is that why District residents simply have given up attending the meetings? A quorum of 100 took over an hour to achieve! Obviously, it is more than just citizen apathy. It is being treated as if the voters have no voice. The Citizens are outmaneuvered by the elected officials’ access to the citizen-funded legal advice, parliamentary tactics and the difficulty of sorting through how the monies are actually spent.

Now, for the evening denouement: the meeting was adjourned, because a quorum no longer existed to vote on the reconsideration motion. Therefore, the meeting is not ‘over’ --only adjourned until June 9, where I hope the supporters of this possibly technically flawed petition will have their say again-to vote in the affirmative and to ask the Elected Officials to do their sworn duty--to act on behalf of the electorate, and EXPLORE how to change the enabling legislation to allow for some monetary assistance to the Centerville, Osterville and Marstons Mills libraries, who struggle mightily to survive in the Town of Barnstable’s only partial financial support of their existences.

Whew that was a treatise-but then such an involved story cannot be explained in 500 words or less!

Posted by:

Deborah Schilling, Town of Barnstable Resident-not speaking on behalf of the Marstons Mills Board of Trustees, but only as an interested witness to the machinations of the COMM Fire and Water District and its politicians and legal counsel.

I was asked to comment on the ‘holiday homes’ market for a Boston newspaper article to be published. I assembled statistics and snapshots of the market for that interview and here are my thoughts.

The short report is that the Cape Cod real estate market has been active in the First 3 months of 2011. First time buyers are still competing with second home ‘holiday’ home buyers for the properties under $300,000-which is the fastest moving segment, with only a 5 month ‘supply’ at this point-almost a balanced market on Cape Cod!

Sellers are listing homes, and they need to be ‘prettied up’ to sell successfully. We see that there is a significant difference in the success of selling a mint condition home vs. one that shows even a little ‘tired’. Price is of course a critical factor, but buyers are strongly gravitating toward homes that are most updated, clean and well maintained.

Buyers are buying on Cape Cod, but the pace slowed since last year at this time, when the Tax Credits were stimulating buying activity for First Time and ‘move up’ (or down) buyers. Our sales volume for Cape Cod is off by 40% from first quarter of 2010, BUT median prices are up by 5.7%. Because pending sales are up so significantly, I am confident that this volume deficit will be greatly reduced when May and June sales are reported.

Are prices going up? Not at this time-the median price increase is attributable, I believe, to the huge percentage of sales in the lower tier of pricing (below $200,000) in 2010. Simply said, not much in the more expensive price range (over $500,000) was selling at all on Cape Cod in early 2010! In 2011, we have fewer homes under $200,00 to sell.

What happens from here? Mint condition, well priced homes will continue to sell; homes needing maintenance and price adjustments will be shown and shown-to the frustration of Sellers and their agents. Higher interest rates are pressing at the gate, and I am very concerned about the impact that a point or more interest rate jump will have on Buyers’ ability and willingness to buy. A double dip is a strong possibility if this happens, as the Cape Cod housing recovery is fragile and spotty.

Where are the ‘hot spots?’ From ‘pending sales’ perspective, Towns with large second home opportunities seem to be leading. This doesn’t mean all pending sales are second homes, but it is an indicator to support the observation that second home (holiday home) buyers are heavily participating in our market.

Real Estate on Cape Cod-Been down so long it looks like up!

Prices to fall further vs real estate prices on uptick, interest levels rising vs affordability reduced. Jobs uncertain vs no double dip recession. Recent news is more optimistic, for sure, but always tempered with ‘as long as…’ or ‘but if’.

I have been digesting both the last quarter 2010 summaries and the 2011 outlooks, and the picture is not clear. Cape Cod’s real estate market is distinct from the rest of Massachusetts, as we are a ‘vacation home’ community within commuting distance to a major city with strong and diverse employment.

I would be naïve to suggest that Cape Cod Real Estate sales are not vulnerable to future economic uncertainty, but we may have taken our ‘hit’ and could be heading up in sales volume and average price in 2011.  Since January 1, 2011, we have had a substantial increase in Buyer traffic, precipitated by jump in interest rates from their 2010 lows, and by the prospect of significant activity on both the very low end of pricing and the luxury property segment. Sandwiched in between-the mid range houses from $300,000-1,000,000 there are buyers looking, but carefully considering each decision, and awaiting price reductions to motivate them to act.

In summary, we see bright signs ahead, with 2011 likely to be the transition year to a modest real estate recovery in 2012 for Cape Cod real estate. Asking prices on individual properties are not set to rise, but as I have said before, properties that show very well and are priced for the current competition have an excellent chance of getting sold in early 2011. See Chart below (from Cape and Islands MLS reports) showing inventory levels in December dropped to only 10 months at the current rate of sales-a great sign to demonstrate movement in market. If you have questions, or would like more information about the Cape Cod Real estate marekt, contact me at deb@onestophomes.com

Deborah Schilling,
…One yard at a time –selling Cape Cod real estate for 25 years, with focus on Villages of Barnstable and beyond, including Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Osterville, Centerville, Hyannis, Barnstable and West Barnstable.

In an article today on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, the verdict is in! Vacation home buying on Cape Cod (and elsewhere) is coming back. Low interest rates, stronger stock market, better economic outlook all indicate that 2011 will be a banner year for Cape Cod Real Estate.

To read the article, follow this link:http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704482704576071984006994652-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMDExNDAyWj.html 

Citing information from the above article, sales from coast to coast show significant increases.Quoting from the article in WSJ: "The comback,NAR economist, Lawrence Yun said, has been helped by gains in the stock market and an imporving economy, which have made wealthier Americans more upbeat about the future. 'It also implies that prices in some markets have come down so much that people are fighting for those properties', Mr Yun said, noting that demand is strongest in areas close to stable labor markets."

Cape Cod is very near Boston, which is a diversified and strong labor market. With many universities,bio tech, high tech and health care  jobs at top employers, values on Cape Cod have fallen, but not as much as remote vacation destinations. The Cape has commuters and is an easy destination for weekend second homeowners-from the whole Northeast.

I am personally seeing the phones ringing on a wide spectrum of property prices and locations since January 1. The buyers are coming off the sidelines to make decisions, before interest rates or rising prices for the most desirable locations cause homes to be out of reach.

Come on down-the weather in winter isn't perfect, but pretty good for New England. We love our outdoor activities in the winter-come see!

Deb Schilling--Selling Cape Cod Real Estate One Yard at a Time

As we begin the first week of 2010, the outlook for real estate on Cape Cod is mixed-as it has been for some time. There have been some good analyses in print and other media. Since Fall 09 was pretty good on  Cape Cod, we hope it will continue into 2010.

The difficulties are going to be with financing and credit issues, as banks are constantly revising lending guidelines and becoming more conservative. The Consumer is feeling more confident, and has been accustomed to being able to secure financing for most purchases unless their credit rating was really poor or they hold too much debt. That may change in the coming months  as Private Investors begin to buy ‘Mortgages’ (technically Mortgage Backed Securities) again. Those investors are likely to be more cautious, and will put pressure on Interest rates to rise-to make their investments pay off.

We are not immune to this on Cape Cod, but I am optimistic that the activity I saw in the Fall of 2009 was based on confidence in the value of Cape Cod real estate. We tend to have more affluent buyers than some resort areas, and although all income levels were affected by the economic downturn, our Yankee frugality and/or generally higher income levels allow Buyers to believe our real estate is a good long term investment.

The most recent reports I have from Realtor.com (the most visited Real Estate Web site in the U.S.), show a substantial downturn in ‘Views’ in December. The high points (overall) were earlier in the Fall, as Consumers began to see possible good news ahead. I will be monitoring the activity in January, and hope the weather moderates. Once the initial cold snap happens, though, cold and inclement weather doesn’t stop Buyers, so we are all accustomed to it now, and look forward to Spring (and maybe a new Home!!)

Other indicators show that there is serious interest in Buying on Cape Cod, with the help of the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit (for first time buyers and existing home buyers), and with Investors looking at the many opportunities that are available for purchase.

I had an excellent showing today on a house I have listed in Marstons Mills, located on a Saltwater River, with views to Prince Cove with its deepwater marina. It is listed for $474,000 and the prospect is a local Builder who loved the location and may be up for a project to update this unique property.

We still see good activity for First Time Buyers, and Second Home Buyers, and I expect it to pick up considerable as our “Spring Market” develops. (Yes,  the Spring Market on Cape Cod does begin well before the daffodils come up and the grass turns green-the Early Bird gets the choicest worms here!)

Deb

Yesterday I closed on a listing that was in East Falmouth-a cute Cape in a nice neighborhood of Ashumet Valley Estates. The economic stimulus has had a positive effect on real estate and in this case it helped both the Buyer and the Seller!

The Buyers-a lovely young couple who are schoolteachers bought the house, and will utilize the extended First Time Buyer Tax Credit. I suspect (they were not my clients) that they will reimburse themselves for expenses associated with the purchase, and maybe even buy some new items for the house.

The Sellers are moving out of state to new jobs, and their purchase is likely to be in time to qualify for the Tax credit for homeowners who are selling a home they have occupied as a primary residence and buying another.

Without these incentives, the transaction may not have come together-the house was listed by another agency earlier in the year, and little activity. I listed it in August, and it seemed like properties on Cape Cod in the 'First Time Homebuyer' range were really selling well. Also, we were seeing an uptick in Second Home Buyers purchasing on Cape Cape Cod. In fact, we had several interested parties from each category. A couple of offers were very low, and not able to be successfully negotiated, as the Buyers were reading Media reports of lack of activity and low list to selling price rations. With patience, and effective marketing, this house found its perfect Buyers in November, and may not have been able to sell prior to the original expiration of the Tax Credit.

We ended up with Happy Sellers and Happy Buyers for this Cape Cod home in Falmouth, and look forward to seeing continuing momentum in 2010-the signs are postive! ?For details on the Tax Credit click on the link below, or call for a hard copy, email or fax for details on this wonderful benefit.

tax_credit_indformation_sheet.pdf (71.34 kb)

Happy Holidays

Deb Schilling

Photo of Association beach on Ashumet Pond-if you own in this neighborhood, you would have rights to this find freahwater beach.

During this difficult economic time, it is important for all of us to remember how much our donations mean to the charities or non profits we choose to support. Late last year and earlier this year, the slow down in the Cape Cod Real estate market made it difficult for me to keep up with my charitable giving. I have had the good fortune to have had a 2009 that by the end of the year will not be 'off' that much from 2008!

I have selected a new organization to support-The Cape Cod United Way. They have traditionally supported a wide variety of programs and organizations locally. I invite you to explore their mission and share in supporting it. Connect with them at www.uwcapecod.org and view the Giving or Volunteering opportunities at www.uwcapecod.org/pdf/broforwebsite.pdf . As a small businessperson, I elected to commit to giving through the Rising Tide program. My name was featured in an article in the November 2009 edition of the periodical Cape and Plymouth Business as a participant in this new program. To read the article about the United Way Cape Cod, connect to

Rising Tide article Cape & Business Nov 09.pdf (1.32 mb)

I have also been a long time fan of Libraries in the Town of Barnstable. As I lived in Marstons Mills for 20 years and my Real Estate office has always been in Marstons Mills. I also support the Marstons Mills Public Library at www.mmpl.org It is a fine small library with a local feel, which is true for the other 6 libraries in our Town.

I also feel we have a treasure in Talk Radio with our local NPR radio station with is WCAI. I enjoy the wide ranging topics and interviews-from politics to nature and personalities on a local Cape Cod level. Learn more about the programming or listen online at www.cainan.org

I have made a commitment to be a Sustainer by a regular monthly commitment pledge to PBS WCAI Radio.

I believe that I owe a lot to Cape Cod for my success and the joy that every day reminds me how lucky I am to live in such a wonderful place! Whether you are here already and need to change your living situation, plan to move here by buying a second home, or retire here by buying a retirement home, I would be pleased to help you with a no obligation consultation to help you in your decision process.

Deb

The recently extended HomeBuyer Tax Credit is poised to help us continue our strong gains in activity this Fall. Great opportunity for first time buyers, AND current Homeowners to take advantage of this Tax Credit to buy a home on Cape Cod!

This information sheet provides an overview of the Tax credit provisions

Here is a FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) regarding how the Homebuyer Tax Credit actually might work in the "Real World"supplied by Laurie Hayes, VP Mortgage Banking at Eastern Bank, here in Marstons Mills. I think it puts it into an understandable context!