Cape Cod Market conditions for late 2011

Our Cape Cod market continues to show strength in the last 2 quarters, as Buyers overcame concerns about economy and snapped up the best available properties. Cape Cod sales volume in 2011 is down about 10% compared to 2010 and median price dropped 2% for the same period. This is reasonable for the current situation, and is good considering 2010 sales were buoyed by the government tax incentives. 2011 has had no artificial buying stimuli, so the sales this year have been truly free market.

Many Buyers and Sellers recognize that the ‘bottom’ is here-especially when calculating the cost to purchase-with interest rates at historic lows. The Second home/vacation buyers seem to be aware of this and have made a significant contribution to real estate sales this year. We have seen significant interest in beach properties, village properties in Cotuit, Osterville Centerville, and Marstons Mills

Pricing and preparing a home for sale has never been more crucial-Buyers will buy the ‘good’ properties-priced well and prepped for showing. Sellers realize that condition sells and pricing to the market is key to success.

Consumer confidence appears to be growing slowly, and this will likely increase the desire to make the investments that have been postponed due to uncertainty and negative news.

2012 should be a year of gradual improvement in the Cape Cod real estate market, as interest rates should remain low and prices for properties will have hit bottom and may start to rise by Mid Year as demand reduces the inventory backlog. We don’t expect prices to rise much in the next year, but more desirable locations and appropriately marketed properties could exceed this modest expectation.z

Until you can return to the Cape (or even better buy your vacation home here) enjoy this scene overlooking Nauset Marsh from Fort Hill area of Cape Cod National Seashore on a glorious November day

As we enter the second half of 2011, the real estate forecast is partly  cloudy!  I have had a great first 6 months of 2011, and my Sellers and Buyers seem pleased to buy or sell their Cape Cod property.

We look ahead and some economic signs are troubling, but the activity here on Cape Cod seems to not always be directly affected as other areas of the country are. Second home buyers are purchasing properties for personal use, and/or for eventual retirement. There seems to be a trend toward down-sizing, too, as many of the larger homes remain unsold. The First Quarter 2011 statistics for Cape Cod and the Islands shows the number of sales down substantially by 41%, as compared to 2010, and yet the median price rose by 5.7%. This doesn’t mean prices are rising, yet it does show that there are more expensive houses selling as compared to the vast number of foreclosures that pulled the median prices down in 2010 (and created the larger number of sales in 2010-combined with the tax credit incentives).

I continue to work full time as an experienced real estate professional, and am ready to help you or your referrals with buying or selling decisions. Enjoy the phot below, showing one of only 2 bridges that access Cape Cod -we are an island unto ourselves!

I was asked to comment on the ‘holiday homes’ market for a Boston newspaper article to be published. I assembled statistics and snapshots of the market for that interview and here are my thoughts.

The short report is that the Cape Cod real estate market has been active in the First 3 months of 2011. First time buyers are still competing with second home ‘holiday’ home buyers for the properties under $300,000-which is the fastest moving segment, with only a 5 month ‘supply’ at this point-almost a balanced market on Cape Cod!

Sellers are listing homes, and they need to be ‘prettied up’ to sell successfully. We see that there is a significant difference in the success of selling a mint condition home vs. one that shows even a little ‘tired’. Price is of course a critical factor, but buyers are strongly gravitating toward homes that are most updated, clean and well maintained.

Buyers are buying on Cape Cod, but the pace slowed since last year at this time, when the Tax Credits were stimulating buying activity for First Time and ‘move up’ (or down) buyers. Our sales volume for Cape Cod is off by 40% from first quarter of 2010, BUT median prices are up by 5.7%. Because pending sales are up so significantly, I am confident that this volume deficit will be greatly reduced when May and June sales are reported.

Are prices going up? Not at this time-the median price increase is attributable, I believe, to the huge percentage of sales in the lower tier of pricing (below $200,000) in 2010. Simply said, not much in the more expensive price range (over $500,000) was selling at all on Cape Cod in early 2010! In 2011, we have fewer homes under $200,00 to sell.

What happens from here? Mint condition, well priced homes will continue to sell; homes needing maintenance and price adjustments will be shown and shown-to the frustration of Sellers and their agents. Higher interest rates are pressing at the gate, and I am very concerned about the impact that a point or more interest rate jump will have on Buyers’ ability and willingness to buy. A double dip is a strong possibility if this happens, as the Cape Cod housing recovery is fragile and spotty.

Where are the ‘hot spots?’ From ‘pending sales’ perspective, Towns with large second home opportunities seem to be leading. This doesn’t mean all pending sales are second homes, but it is an indicator to support the observation that second home (holiday home) buyers are heavily participating in our market.

Real Estate on Cape Cod-Been down so long it looks like up!

Prices to fall further vs real estate prices on uptick, interest levels rising vs affordability reduced. Jobs uncertain vs no double dip recession. Recent news is more optimistic, for sure, but always tempered with ‘as long as…’ or ‘but if’.

I have been digesting both the last quarter 2010 summaries and the 2011 outlooks, and the picture is not clear. Cape Cod’s real estate market is distinct from the rest of Massachusetts, as we are a ‘vacation home’ community within commuting distance to a major city with strong and diverse employment.

I would be naïve to suggest that Cape Cod Real Estate sales are not vulnerable to future economic uncertainty, but we may have taken our ‘hit’ and could be heading up in sales volume and average price in 2011.  Since January 1, 2011, we have had a substantial increase in Buyer traffic, precipitated by jump in interest rates from their 2010 lows, and by the prospect of significant activity on both the very low end of pricing and the luxury property segment. Sandwiched in between-the mid range houses from $300,000-1,000,000 there are buyers looking, but carefully considering each decision, and awaiting price reductions to motivate them to act.

In summary, we see bright signs ahead, with 2011 likely to be the transition year to a modest real estate recovery in 2012 for Cape Cod real estate. Asking prices on individual properties are not set to rise, but as I have said before, properties that show very well and are priced for the current competition have an excellent chance of getting sold in early 2011. See Chart below (from Cape and Islands MLS reports) showing inventory levels in December dropped to only 10 months at the current rate of sales-a great sign to demonstrate movement in market. If you have questions, or would like more information about the Cape Cod Real estate marekt, contact me at deb@onestophomes.com

Deborah Schilling,
…One yard at a time –selling Cape Cod real estate for 25 years, with focus on Villages of Barnstable and beyond, including Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Osterville, Centerville, Hyannis, Barnstable and West Barnstable.

Who would think about shopping at the Library. Well, here on Cape Cod you certainly can. From Silent Auctions (I have bid on several things I would love to have for gifts), to giving the gift of unlimited access to the FREE library services by signing someone up for a Library Card. Did you know that libraries now allow you to 'download' NEW books and lots of other STUFF for FREE, using your new E-reader (hint, hint Santa)? If you are interested to know more about the communities I serve selling Cape Cod Real Estate, OR like more information about Living here on Cape Cod (especially in the Off season-plenty to do!!!), just call or email me

Deborah Schilling
Selling Cape Cod Real Estate 1 Yard at a time!

The Recession is Over! Long Live the Recovery!

Unfortunately this proclamation is a bit tongue in cheek. The Recession has been declared 'over'. The recovery is in its very early stages, but I believe it will be a long slow climb out-hence 'long live the recovery'.

We have seen tempting bits of good economic and real estate news, such as the recent report of both increasing sales volume and increase in median price from 2009 to 2010. This is really great news, and yet does not mean prices are actually climbing. It means that more expensive properties are selling, and that is really positive. Last year in the first Quarter of 2009, 75% of the sales were UNDER $250,000, so it could only go up from there.

The good news has been tempered by the reality of our lagging economy. Higher unemployment claims have been documented and consumer confidence sunk unexpectedly in the most recent report. There are still many areas of the Economy that are not on firm footing, and that will affect the Real Estate recovery nationwide.

What about here on Cape Cod, in my primary market areas from The Bridges to Dennis (focusing most intently on Towns of Barnstable-including villages of Marstons Mills, Cotuit, Barnstable and West Barnstable, Osterville, Centerville & Hyannis), Sandwich and Mashpee? I watch the daily activity carefully, and there are many new listings coming on the market daily. Although properties are selling, they are quickly being replaced with new listings. In some cases, the new listings seem to be coming on with optimistic pricing, based on the surge of activity in the last quarter of 2009. That may help to sell some properties that have been on the market for some time, and have recognized that the Market is not supporting unrealistic asking prices of the new listings. Price reductions are carefully followed on the Internet by active Buyer prospects, and when properties are priced right, we see offers coming, and sales completed.

There is real cause for concern later in 2010, after the Tax Credit expires, and the possible impending flood of more expensive houses coming into foreclosure. For buyers, it might seem wise to wait, but the spectre of increased mortgage interest rates could negate the gain of a lower price point. For sellers, it is wise to price the property correctly now to take advantage of the buyer activity we are seeing.

Winter still has a grip here-although we only received about 4-6 inches of snow, I like to think that by mid-February, the worst of Winter is behind us. The snow is melting fast this time, and with it I hope that buyers realize their opportunities to take of advantage of the Federal Tax Credit for both First Time Buyers and qualified Repeat Buyers are running out soon.

In Cotuit and Marstons Mills, we have a good selection of properties for sale in many price ranges. Last year at this time I had several listings in Cotuit, 3 of which sold in 2009, and right now I have only 1. Cotuit seems to be 'hot' right now-there are still options, but the well priced listings and attractive opportunities to live in this delightful seaside village are in short supply. A quick visit to my website www.onestophomes.com (click onto 'Express Search') will show you what is currently for sale in our Cape Cod Multiple Listing Service.

I have 4 listings of Marstons Mills real estate for sale right now-wide price ranges, and 3 are Waterfront properties. Living on the water seems to be everyone's dream of the perfect piece of Cape Cod real estate. What is special about Marstons Mills waterfront properties is that there are beautiful clean freshwater ponds to enjoy both the view and the water activities (swimming, paddling in canoes or kayaks, small craft boating and sailing, and this year ice fishing or skating). There is also Saltwater front property available, too. On inlets, estuaries, deepwater coves and bays-again with pricing to suit everyone's budget for Cape Cod real estate investment.

If you are not aware of the soon to expire Tax Credit opportunity, please view my earlier post with a link to a quick explanation to determine if you might qualify.

With mortgage interests rates likely to rise soon, and buying opportunities galore, Sellers are anxious to see their Cape Cod real estate sell this Spring. For Cape Cod Real Estate Buyers, if you buy now, you will be a homeowner in time for the daffodils and other Spring things here on Cape Cod-and particularly my own personal favorite places-Marstons Mills and Cotuit.

 If you would like to know more about this hidden secrets here on Cape Cod, visit my website at www.onestophomes.com and view information about these villages, and get to know the Mid Cape area, the Town of Barnstable and the activities we enjoy most living here.

Deb

 Spring daffodils on Cape Cod

 Kayaking on Cotuit Bay

As we begin the first week of 2010, the outlook for real estate on Cape Cod is mixed-as it has been for some time. There have been some good analyses in print and other media. Since Fall 09 was pretty good on  Cape Cod, we hope it will continue into 2010.

The difficulties are going to be with financing and credit issues, as banks are constantly revising lending guidelines and becoming more conservative. The Consumer is feeling more confident, and has been accustomed to being able to secure financing for most purchases unless their credit rating was really poor or they hold too much debt. That may change in the coming months  as Private Investors begin to buy ‘Mortgages’ (technically Mortgage Backed Securities) again. Those investors are likely to be more cautious, and will put pressure on Interest rates to rise-to make their investments pay off.

We are not immune to this on Cape Cod, but I am optimistic that the activity I saw in the Fall of 2009 was based on confidence in the value of Cape Cod real estate. We tend to have more affluent buyers than some resort areas, and although all income levels were affected by the economic downturn, our Yankee frugality and/or generally higher income levels allow Buyers to believe our real estate is a good long term investment.

The most recent reports I have from Realtor.com (the most visited Real Estate Web site in the U.S.), show a substantial downturn in ‘Views’ in December. The high points (overall) were earlier in the Fall, as Consumers began to see possible good news ahead. I will be monitoring the activity in January, and hope the weather moderates. Once the initial cold snap happens, though, cold and inclement weather doesn’t stop Buyers, so we are all accustomed to it now, and look forward to Spring (and maybe a new Home!!)

Other indicators show that there is serious interest in Buying on Cape Cod, with the help of the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit (for first time buyers and existing home buyers), and with Investors looking at the many opportunities that are available for purchase.

I had an excellent showing today on a house I have listed in Marstons Mills, located on a Saltwater River, with views to Prince Cove with its deepwater marina. It is listed for $474,000 and the prospect is a local Builder who loved the location and may be up for a project to update this unique property.

We still see good activity for First Time Buyers, and Second Home Buyers, and I expect it to pick up considerable as our “Spring Market” develops. (Yes,  the Spring Market on Cape Cod does begin well before the daffodils come up and the grass turns green-the Early Bird gets the choicest worms here!)

Deb

Yesterday I closed on a listing that was in East Falmouth-a cute Cape in a nice neighborhood of Ashumet Valley Estates. The economic stimulus has had a positive effect on real estate and in this case it helped both the Buyer and the Seller!

The Buyers-a lovely young couple who are schoolteachers bought the house, and will utilize the extended First Time Buyer Tax Credit. I suspect (they were not my clients) that they will reimburse themselves for expenses associated with the purchase, and maybe even buy some new items for the house.

The Sellers are moving out of state to new jobs, and their purchase is likely to be in time to qualify for the Tax credit for homeowners who are selling a home they have occupied as a primary residence and buying another.

Without these incentives, the transaction may not have come together-the house was listed by another agency earlier in the year, and little activity. I listed it in August, and it seemed like properties on Cape Cod in the 'First Time Homebuyer' range were really selling well. Also, we were seeing an uptick in Second Home Buyers purchasing on Cape Cape Cod. In fact, we had several interested parties from each category. A couple of offers were very low, and not able to be successfully negotiated, as the Buyers were reading Media reports of lack of activity and low list to selling price rations. With patience, and effective marketing, this house found its perfect Buyers in November, and may not have been able to sell prior to the original expiration of the Tax Credit.

We ended up with Happy Sellers and Happy Buyers for this Cape Cod home in Falmouth, and look forward to seeing continuing momentum in 2010-the signs are postive! ?For details on the Tax Credit click on the link below, or call for a hard copy, email or fax for details on this wonderful benefit.

tax_credit_indformation_sheet.pdf (71.34 kb)

Happy Holidays

Deb Schilling

Photo of Association beach on Ashumet Pond-if you own in this neighborhood, you would have rights to this find freahwater beach.

Do you go away even for short trips in the winter? Do you have a plan in place to protect your home from disaster? Here are a few tips to help prevent a freeze up or flood that could cost you thousands, render your home uninhabitable, and cause problems with renewal of your Homeowners Insurance.

Homeowners leave their Cape Cod homes unprotected for many reasons. Often it is as simple as only planning to be gone for a long weekend. Our fickle electrical supply can cause a furnace to go off and not reset, and if weather is exceptionally cold, a freeze up can happen in just a short time. Hydronic (hot water baseboard) heating systems are more vulnerable, too. Maintenance issues should be attended to in the Fall-before the cold, snow and ice hit hard.

For a helpful checklist, click on the link below, or email/call me and I will make this valuable FREE list available to you. Email deb@onestophomes.com or (508)428-2300 x 13.

Winterizing checklist for Cape Cod property owners.doc (1.74 mb)

 Winter scene at 904 Main Street, Cotuit-it never snows on Cape Cod, does it????